(no subject)
Feb. 9th, 2010 09:46 pmIf I'd remembered that banana bread needs nearly an hour in the oven, I might have started on it earlier than 9pm. It's been a while since I did any baking, but this is something of a special occasion. Weather permitting, around 10.26 ET tomorrow, NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory is due to be launched from Kennedy Space Center aboard an Atlas rocket. There's a better than even chance it'll end up slipping another day, but still. We've been waiting for this for years, so one more day doesn't make much difference. We're planning a small breakfast gathering in the conference room, with NASA TV streaming on the big screen, and I seem to have elected myself to bring goodies. If the launch does slip, I may have to do it again tomorrow, in which case I'll have to stop off for more eggs and sugar on the way home.
... but it's raining again
Feb. 7th, 2010 10:27 amNearly half an inch so far this morning. About a quart in the receptacle under the drip in my bedroom between 6 and 9am. Two dreams in which leaks were bursting out all over the ceiling and I was running around trying to catch the water.
No Shuttle launch this morning, so no SDO launch on Tuesday. Two M-class flares yesterday; it's past time we got that thing up there and working!
No Shuttle launch this morning, so no SDO launch on Tuesday. Two M-class flares yesterday; it's past time we got that thing up there and working!
Three, count them, three C-class flares on the UT version of the 16th. It was only two when I checked at lunchtime, and I was happy to be able to point them out during my talk. Maybe the Sun isn't going to be as active for a while as we've been used to for the last half-century, but at least it isn't as blank now as it has been for much of the year.
Of course, when we first announced the result I talked about today, at the SPD in June, the Sun kindly produced a nice little sunspot, complete with penumbra -- and then nothing at all for the next two or three months. I think I'm going to have to work that line about past results not being an indication of future performance into my next paper. Except in broad and rough outline, the Sun doesn't really repeat itself -- and those rough repeats are long enough that we only get three or four of them per career.
Of course, when we first announced the result I talked about today, at the SPD in June, the Sun kindly produced a nice little sunspot, complete with penumbra -- and then nothing at all for the next two or three months. I think I'm going to have to work that line about past results not being an indication of future performance into my next paper. Except in broad and rough outline, the Sun doesn't really repeat itself -- and those rough repeats are long enough that we only get three or four of them per career.
I seem to have survived my first day at the AGU, including giving the invited talk which was the main reason I'm here in the first place.
So the question may be, has the Sun actually been behaving oddly since the turn of the millennium, or is it just that the Space Age and the start of modern observations coincided with a period of unusually high activity which is now reverting to normal? (As soon as we figure out what normal is anyway.) This reminds me rather of the theory I've heard somewhere, that the American West was colonized during an abnormally wet period that set up unrealistic expectations for how much water would be available long-term.
I spent the lunch break wandering around the Yerba Buena gardens, a quiet little oasis of grass and trees and water in the midst of a precipitous concrete-and-glass desert. It was disconcerting to see magnolia and azalea flowers in December; mind you, they did look rather as though they were regretting it. It wasn't very warm, and afterwards the only time I felt warm enough to take off my jacket all afternoon was when I had just had a cup of hot coffee. (I was very relieved that there was hot coffee; the AGU has a habit of serving only beer (and maybe soda) for the afternoon breaks.)
So the question may be, has the Sun actually been behaving oddly since the turn of the millennium, or is it just that the Space Age and the start of modern observations coincided with a period of unusually high activity which is now reverting to normal? (As soon as we figure out what normal is anyway.) This reminds me rather of the theory I've heard somewhere, that the American West was colonized during an abnormally wet period that set up unrealistic expectations for how much water would be available long-term.
I spent the lunch break wandering around the Yerba Buena gardens, a quiet little oasis of grass and trees and water in the midst of a precipitous concrete-and-glass desert. It was disconcerting to see magnolia and azalea flowers in December; mind you, they did look rather as though they were regretting it. It wasn't very warm, and afterwards the only time I felt warm enough to take off my jacket all afternoon was when I had just had a cup of hot coffee. (I was very relieved that there was hot coffee; the AGU has a habit of serving only beer (and maybe soda) for the afternoon breaks.)
It just goes to show how quiet the Sun has been lately, that it feels worthwhile to blog a C-class flare, but there it was -- the first one since early July. I'm particularly charmed that it came from Region 11026, which thanks to STEREO, which in its current positions lets us see about 300 degrees of the Sun at once, and Farside Helioseismology, we've been watching since well before it actually came around to the front of the Sun.
Normality returning to Mount Wilson
Sep. 15th, 2009 09:56 pmThis page last updated on September 15, 2009 at 15:19 P.D.T. Observatory weather: clear but with local smoke; winds calm; 68 degrees F.
Most current magnetograph data: 15-Sep-2009.
Today, for the first time since August 28, the 150-foot solar tower at Mount Wilson -- the one with the famous webcam on top -- observed the Sun. (Yesterday was very foggy.)
The Sun was very boring, as it has been for a while now, but that may be about to change.
In spite of the proclaimed success of the controlled burn last week, the section of the fire perimeter from Mount Wilson to the Cogswell Reservoir is the only bit officially marked "not controlled." No-one seems to be very worried, though. The official containment date was to have been today, but they put it back because of the hold-ups last week, and it now stands at 91% contained, still smoking and smouldering in places.
Most current magnetograph data: 15-Sep-2009.
Today, for the first time since August 28, the 150-foot solar tower at Mount Wilson -- the one with the famous webcam on top -- observed the Sun. (Yesterday was very foggy.)
The Sun was very boring, as it has been for a while now, but that may be about to change.
In spite of the proclaimed success of the controlled burn last week, the section of the fire perimeter from Mount Wilson to the Cogswell Reservoir is the only bit officially marked "not controlled." No-one seems to be very worried, though. The official containment date was to have been today, but they put it back because of the hold-ups last week, and it now stands at 91% contained, still smoking and smouldering in places.
(no subject)
Sep. 2nd, 2009 10:36 amThe latest version of the official Station Fire perimeter (you can get them for Google Earth here, but it doesn't work right with Firefox) shows a new area of fire directly north of the Mount Wilson observatory -- touching the 100-inch telescope, in fact. I think that's the defensive backfire they were setting yesterday, and according to the director things are looking fairly good.
That hurricane isn't going to come anywhere near there, apparently. Last I heard, it was going to head out into the Pacific again instead of bringing us the rain we were hoping for here.
That hurricane isn't going to come anywhere near there, apparently. Last I heard, it was going to head out into the Pacific again instead of bringing us the rain we were hoping for here.
(no subject)
Sep. 1st, 2009 07:06 pmIt's been a busy day on Mount Wilson. There was a lot of smoke on the webcam from early morning, and a LOT of smoke by lunchtime. After lunch someone put up a proper mirror of the poor oversubscribed webcam; about an hour later the observatory went offline. The director was ready for this and evacuated his blog to Georgia State; apparently most of the smoke was from backfires set by firefighters who were back on the mountain, and they think one of the backfires took out the internet connection. Mid-afternoon there was much excitement over a big water-drop, which I managed to miss despite juggling three or four live video feeds -- one of which cut away to NASA TV just as things were getting interesting.
Cautious optimism, I think.
Cautious optimism, I think.
(no subject)
Aug. 31st, 2009 08:22 pmWell, the Mount Wilson Observatory doesn't seem to have burned down yet; I found a sort of mirror for the webcam and it still seems to be up, or was half an hour ago. Lots of smoke, but no flames in sight. The last news from the director didn't sound good, though; the firefighters had been pulled back from the staging area near the mountain, and plans were not to fight the fire on the ground if it came through. They did put in a lot of effort yesterday getting the place as buttoned down as possible.
I have selfish professional reasons for wanting the observatory to survive; I work with the data from both the solar towers, and I know the scientists. Those are both elderly instruments, not cutting-edge but unique, and valuable from sheer longevity. In the bigger picture, that's a small part of what stands to be lost and has already been lost. I don't feel comfortable asking firefighters to risk their lives for telescopes, however historic, any more than I was comfortable with the risk to the astronauts upgrading Hubble, but I do hope the telescopes will survive.
I have selfish professional reasons for wanting the observatory to survive; I work with the data from both the solar towers, and I know the scientists. Those are both elderly instruments, not cutting-edge but unique, and valuable from sheer longevity. In the bigger picture, that's a small part of what stands to be lost and has already been lost. I don't feel comfortable asking firefighters to risk their lives for telescopes, however historic, any more than I was comfortable with the risk to the astronauts upgrading Hubble, but I do hope the telescopes will survive.
Active region 11024, currently visible on the Sun, may be the closest thing to a real active region we've seen yet in the new solar cycle; the leading spot has a penumbra and everything! It's even managed a couple of C-class (aka, feeble but noticeable) flares in the last couple of days, the first we've seen in months.
This claim that an upcoming surge in solar activity has been predicted by crop circle, however, had my colleagues and me boggling and rolling our eyes. It's a very nice crop circle, but who comes up with these things?
This claim that an upcoming surge in solar activity has been predicted by crop circle, however, had my colleagues and me boggling and rolling our eyes. It's a very nice crop circle, but who comes up with these things?
Now it's official
Jan. 4th, 2008 09:10 pmLadies and gentlemen, please welcome ....
Active Region 10981, the first numbered region of the new solar cycle.
Solar Cycle 24 has arrived!
Active Region 10981, the first numbered region of the new solar cycle.
Solar Cycle 24 has arrived!
Solar cycle watch
Dec. 14th, 2007 10:37 pmThe little dipole is still there,
though it doesn't look to be getting any bigger or to have much chance of qualifying for a number. I'm intrigued by the old-cycle dipole about fifteen degrees due south; as it happens, I stumbled across a paper just this evening that was commenting on that kind of thing happening at the last solar minimum, too. Meanwhile, the big patch of old-cycle activity, 10978, has been popping off a few baby flares, the first in a few months, just to prove that Cycle 23 isn't quite over yet.
though it doesn't look to be getting any bigger or to have much chance of qualifying for a number. I'm intrigued by the old-cycle dipole about fifteen degrees due south; as it happens, I stumbled across a paper just this evening that was commenting on that kind of thing happening at the last solar minimum, too. Meanwhile, the big patch of old-cycle activity, 10978, has been popping off a few baby flares, the first in a few months, just to prove that Cycle 23 isn't quite over yet.
Here comes the Sun
Dec. 12th, 2007 10:00 pmIt's not official yet, as far as I know, but we may have the first active region of Solar Cycle 24.
Here's a magnetic map of the Sun today:
FTP link
See that faint black-and-white patch at about 10 o'clock, near the edge? Notice that the black is ahead (right) of the white, just as it is in the big region just south of the middle? That's what we call new-cycle polarity, and it might just grow up to be the first numbered region of the new cycle. (In any given eleven-year cycle, one hemisphere has one polarity leading and the other has it following in each active region/sunspot; they start at about 40 degrees latitude and migrate towards the equator, getting stronger until solar maximum when the polarity of the polar caps flips, then gradually fading away. The next cycle has the opposite pattern. (A bit more detail in the Wikipedia article here ).
We had clear skies today, too, after the fog lifted. That was quite dramatic; at 10am I was taking a photo from the bus stop of the fog-bank where the mountains were supposed to be, but by the time the bus came the tip of the highest peak was poking out, snow-dusted, and by the time I got to campus the whole range was clear.
Here's a magnetic map of the Sun today:
FTP link
See that faint black-and-white patch at about 10 o'clock, near the edge? Notice that the black is ahead (right) of the white, just as it is in the big region just south of the middle? That's what we call new-cycle polarity, and it might just grow up to be the first numbered region of the new cycle. (In any given eleven-year cycle, one hemisphere has one polarity leading and the other has it following in each active region/sunspot; they start at about 40 degrees latitude and migrate towards the equator, getting stronger until solar maximum when the polarity of the polar caps flips, then gradually fading away. The next cycle has the opposite pattern. (A bit more detail in the Wikipedia article here ).
We had clear skies today, too, after the fog lifted. That was quite dramatic; at 10am I was taking a photo from the bus stop of the fog-bank where the mountains were supposed to be, but by the time the bus came the tip of the highest peak was poking out, snow-dusted, and by the time I got to campus the whole range was clear.
Moon and Sun
Dec. 5th, 2006 08:50 pmThe Sun fired off an X9 flare -- that's a big one, the biggest in a couple of years -- this morning. The neat thing is that this came from an old active region (first seen last month on the day of the Mercury transit) that has been clearly seen on the back of the Sun for the last couple of weeks and is just now coming round again; at the time of the flare, it hadn't even been numbered yet.
This evening, as I was waiting for the bus, the moon was hanging between the palm trees over the floodlights of the campus tennis court, round and golden-bright as a fresh dollar coin.
It would be nice if they let us put some solar instrumentation at the proposed lunar base. (To say more than that would get into some fairly unhappy politics and funding issues, so I won't.)
This evening, as I was waiting for the bus, the moon was hanging between the palm trees over the floodlights of the campus tennis court, round and golden-bright as a fresh dollar coin.
It would be nice if they let us put some solar instrumentation at the proposed lunar base. (To say more than that would get into some fairly unhappy politics and funding issues, so I won't.)
Monster sunspots!
Jan. 13th, 2005 10:25 pmMeet NOAA AR 720.

Two days ago it was hardly there at all:
( another image )
No big flares so far, and maybe it's too simple to do much, but it looks worth keeping an eye on.
( And a blast from the past: )
All the images are from http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov, which is usually worth looking at if you like this kind of thing.

Two days ago it was hardly there at all:
( another image )
No big flares so far, and maybe it's too simple to do much, but it looks worth keeping an eye on.
( And a blast from the past: )
All the images are from http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov, which is usually worth looking at if you like this kind of thing.